Monday Night Football free pick: Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants

Monday Night Football graciously bestows a divisional rivalry game on us this week. The Cowboys will enter MetLife Stadium at 3-0 in the division and having beaten New York five times in a row including 35-17 in the opener this year. This is a "line in the sand" game for the Giants as if they drop this one, they’ll have virtually no hope in the division. Then again, no one really credited them with such hope in the preseason and many would argue that the battle at hand is simply to display competence and competitive spirit for the time being.

Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants odds

Shepard should return for New York

Things will look differently in the matchup this time around as it will be Daniel Jones getting the start over Eli Manning. At this point in their careers, that’s a small upgrade for NYG. Furthering the positive vibe, it appears that #1 WR Sterling Shepard should be passing concussion protocol and suiting up. Both Shepard and #2 WR Golden Tate are very capable of creating mismatches against Dallas’ underwhelming secondary. PFF has those two, along with RG Kevin Zeitler and Saquon Barkley, as their highest rated players on offense.

Dallas' O-Line is dominant

Problems really start to manifest for New York when you turn your focus to defense. The first such problem is the Cowboys’ OL. By and large, studs like RT La’el Collins, RG Zack Martin and LT Tyron Smith should have their way. The Giants will need a big performance from DE Dexter Lawrence and NG Dalvin Tomlinson against the weaker Cowboys’ interior of LG Connor Williams and C Travis Frederick to slow the running onslaught led by RB Ezekiel Elliott.

More issues will surface out in space. WR Amari Cooper vs. CB DeAndre Baker is a total and complete mismatch. I likewise expect Randall Cobb to eat up slot corner Grant Haley. The teeth of the Giants’ secondary is CB Janoris Jenkins and SS Jabrill Peppers. They will need big plays from both to keep QB Dak Prescott from continuing his run of dominance in this series (68/101 passing for 1,053 yards, 9 TDs, 0 INTs in last three meetings).

Giants will come out with both guns blazing

I do not see this being an easy game for Dallas. The Giants are as healthy as they have been all season and they really need this win. I expect them to give a strong effort and perhaps even get out in front in this matchup. But the Cowboys are so explosive on offense. They have the luxury of picking and choosing which mismatch to exploit. High-speed crosswinds swirling throughout MetLife? No problem. Just mash the NYG front with your #3 ranked OL and watch Ezekiel Elliott run wild.

Giants stacking the box and seeing Lawrence and Tomlinson playing like they did against inferior collegiate competition? Easy fix—just swing the ball out wide to Michael Gallup and Amari Cooper and watch every Giants fan cringe at the large, unoccupied patches of green.

Suffice it to say that you could bet on the Cowboys, be losing the game outright by 1-6 points, and then have a covering spread just a few minutes later. This game should be competitive throughout, but I anticipate a 5-10 minute stretch of brilliance from Dallas to be enough to earn this margin.

NFL free pick: Cowboys (-7)

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