Odds say Pittsburgh will extend Miami's misery on MNF

The Dolphins’ funeral march to a winless season and the top pick in the 2020 NFL Draft continues at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh on Monday night. We could have had a spicier entrée, but I’m not crying over spilled milk, because it's football and there’s coin to be made. Let’s check these two teams out ahead of their clash.

Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN

Miami has been historically bad

As a whole the Dolphins are uniformly terrible. They are -42 in first downs, -19 in touchdowns, -952 in total yards, -2.3 in yards per play and -1.4 in yards per carry. They are even worse in the passing game, at -3.4 in yards per attempt, -17 in sacks and -9 in interceptions. Things are slightly improved when Ryan Fitzpatrick is at quarterback instead of Josh Rosen, but you might have to squint to see that improvement. Kenyan Drake has just as many receiving yards as he has rushing yards (174) and is seemingly on the trading block, but there’s been no movement yet. One bright spot has been rookie Preston Williams as leading wide receiver, but again, we use bright spot in the most liberal sense.

To my surprise this offensive line is not ranked the worst in the league (though they are 25th in adjusted-line yards). Right tackle Jesse Davis is the highest-rated performer according to Pro Football Focus, but I feel center Daniel Kilgore has been better. The Dolphins have had their most success running up the middle, and Kilgore is questionable this week.

Defensively there have been a few bright spots. Nose tackle John Jenkins is playing as well as he ever has, though he is a limited-snap player. The same could be said for outside linebacker Vince Biegel. Left for dead in Dallas, defensive tackle Taco Charlton has three sacks and 3.5 tackles for loss in four games, though he misses assignments on many other plays. With no player defending more than four passes and the entire unit combining for a single measly interception, the secondary has been dreadful. They will get their handsomely paid corner Xavien Howard back, but his performance in 2019 has come nowhere close to his dollar figure on the team payroll spreadsheet.

Expect big things from Mason Rudolph

The Steelers may be beginning to hit their stride. Quarterback Mason Rudolph has not been unleashed yet, and this may be the game that coach Mike Tomlin takes the training wheels off. Pittsburgh’s offensive line has been as bad as Miami’s, but the running back tandem of James Conner and Benny Snell will find some real estate on the right side running behind tackle Matt Feiler and guard David DeCastro. Expect Rudolph to hit his old Oklahoma State college buddy James Washington on at least one deep ball Monday night.

Miami's offense will be in for a long night

The Steelers defense will smother Miami most of the night. The Steelers secondary is the weakness of the defense, primarily because it is bereft of star power. But what it lacks in stars it makes up for in depth. Four of its top six defensive backs have had their hands in breaking up or intercepting 3+ passes, and it’s only a matter of time before Minkah Fitzpatrick starts to follow in the footsteps of Pittsburgh great Troy Polamalu patrolling the back end.

As stated in the opener, there is money to be made fading the Dolphins this year. Bookmakers know Miami is historically bad, but being historically bad means being even worse than everyone expects you to be. The Dolphins are 2-4 ATS this year, and I expect them to finish no better than 5-11. Fade them every chance you get, but especially at Heinz Field against a Steelers team that is starting to find itself and round into form.

Pick: Steelers -13.5

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