Packers vs. Vikings: NFL Week 11 betting odds, preview, and pick
Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins. (David Berding/Icon Sportswire)
November 18th, 2021
Fierce NFC North rivals will collide at U.S. Bank Stadium on Sunday afternoon as the Green Bay Packers visit the Minnesota Vikings.
The Packers blanked the Seattle Seahawks in Aaron Rodgers’ first game back under center following his COVID scandal, while the Vikings managed to beat the Los Angeles Chargers on the road last week.
"To hold [the Chiefs] to 13 points and this offense scoreless, that's winning football."
— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) November 15, 2021
Aaron Rodgers gives credit to the defense after the @packers shut out the Seahawks today. @tracywolfson pic.twitter.com/nk7LRRmP7X
Will Green Bay further distance themselves from the rest of the division, or will Minnesota spring the upset? Here’s our wagering preview.
Green Bay Packers (8-2) at Minnesota Vikings (4-5), 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX
Rodgers rakes in headlines, but not yardage
Lost in all the hoopla surrounding Rodgers and his COVID controversy is that the Packers offense simply isn’t an elite unit this year.
.@Prez WAS RIGHT THERE FOR THE PICK! 😤
— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) November 14, 2021
SEAHAWKS BALL!
📺: CBS pic.twitter.com/BlvyrYegqw
Counting the Jordan Love fiasco in Week 9 (seven points), Green Bay is averaging a modest 21.6 points per game, 19th in the NFL. They also rank 19th in both passing yards per game (230.1) and rushing yards per game (109.3). The latter number is likely to fall here with the news that tailback Aaron Jones could miss this week and next with an MCL sprain.
Rodgers' stats in particular are disappointing following his 2020 NFL MVP campaign. He’s 14th in both yards per attempt (7.4) and yards per game (242.9), and ninth in both touchdowns (17) and passer rating (101.9).
Packers defense solid, but not invincible
The Packers’ stoppers are the primary reason their team is 8-2, as they rank third in both points allowed per game (18) and yards allowed per game (309.9). But Kirk Cousins and company can find a way to beat them at home.
Cousins to Conklin again! @Vikings take the lead in LA. #SKOL
— NFL (@NFL) November 14, 2021
📺: #MINvsLAC on FOX
📱: NFL app pic.twitter.com/XEYVzZCve1
Cousins is currently sixth in the NFL in passer rating (104.0), as he boasts the league’s sixth-highest completion rate (68.1%) while ranking eighth in touchdowns (18) and ninth in passing yards (2,434). Most importantly, he’s tossed just two interceptions all year, the best mark among qualified passers this season.
The Vikings are sixth in red zone touchdown percentage (66.7%), and they face a Packers defense that’s 29th in red zone touchdown percentage against (73.1%). Minnesota can exploit this weakness with tight end Tyler Conklin, as Green Bay has allowed he sixth-most receptions to tight ends this year (58). Conklin hauled in two touchdown passes in Week 10.
Packers vs. Vikings injury report
| Minnesota Vikings | Green Bay Packers |
|---|
Bashaud Breeland: Questionable (groin) | Aaron Jones: Doubtful (knee) |
Anthony Barr: Questionable (knee) | Aaron Rodgers: Questionable (toe) |
Davante Adams: Questionable (shoulder) | |
Allen Lazard: Questionable (shoulder) | |
Rashan Gary: Questionable (elbow) |
Packers and Vikings betting trends
- The Packers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS win
- The Vikings are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games as a home underdog
- The Under is 7-0 in the Packers’ last seven games overall
- The Over is 6-2 in the Vikings’ last eight games against NFC North opponents
The verdict
The Vikings should prove to be a good bet as home underdogs on Sunday afternoon. They’re not as bad as their record indicates, and the Packers may not be as good as their record suggests either.
Score prediction: Vikings 24, Packers 20
NFL pick: Vikings +2
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