Playoff picture, start/sit scenarios, and more ahead of Week 18 schedule

The final week of the 2023 NFL season is upon us, with playoff implications, player bonuses, and 2024 NFL Draft positioning on the line in Week 18.

Below YouBet provides a rundown of the Week 18 NFL slate, including where each team lies in the playoff picture, which players are set to start or sit in the last week of the season, and much more to prepare you for the postseason and any last-week bets you plan to place at the sportsbook.

Ravens, 49ers own No. 1 seeds

The top seed in the AFC and NFC has already been secured, with the 13-3 Baltimore Ravens owning the No. 1 seed in the AFC, and the 12-4 San Francisco 49ers the top dog in the NFC.

In all, 20 of the NFL's 32 franchises are still clinging to hopes of a Super Bowl LVIII title entering Week 18, and there are five playoff spots yet to be decided.

Six teams can clinch a playoff spot in Week 18 with a victory: the Buffalo Bills, Indianapolis Colts, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. 

The Colts will go head-to-head with the Texans in Indianapolis on Saturday at 8:15 p.m. ET. The winner will move on to the postseason; the loser's season is over. Also of note from a betting perspective: Houston tight end Dalton Schultz could trigger a $250,000 bonus with six receptions in the game and a $250,000 bonus with more than 107 receiving yards. His odds to record more than 100 yards are +1000. He already has a 100-yard outing in Week 9 against Tampa Bay.

Jacksonville will visit AFC South rival Tennessee at 1 p.m. on Sunday, Tampa Bay will clash with the 2-14 Carolina Panthers at 1 p.m. in Charlotte, Green Bay will host Chicago at 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday, and the Bills will visit Miami in the final game of Week 18, a Sunday Night Football showdown in Hard Rock Stadium to decide the winner of the AFC East.

See the below graphic for the current playoff seeding ahead of Week 18.

Bills, Cowboys top 5 in Super Bowl odds

The 49ers sit atop the Super Bowl oddsboard, at +220, while Baltimore is the +300 second choice to hoist the Lombardi Trophy.

Interestingly enough, the Bills own the third-best odds to win the Super Bowl (+800), yet Buffalo could potentially be eliminated from the postseason entirely at the end of Week 18 if the Bills lose to Miami and the Jaguars and Steelers both win (and the Texans-Colts game does not end in a tie).

On the flip side, a win by Buffalo in Miami would hand the Bills the No. 2 seed in the playoffs.

Note that the Steelers are a three-point favorite on the road in Baltimore, with the Ravens expected to play a majority of the game with backups. Jacksonville is a 3.5-point road favorite against Tennessee, and Buffalo is just a slight, 2.5-point road favorite in Miami.

The Dallas Cowboys sit fourth on the Super Bowl oddsboard (+850) and visit the Washington Commanders at 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday. With a win, or a Philadelphia Eagles loss (Philly will visit the New York Giants Sunday), the Cowboys clinch the NFC East title.

If Dallas and the Los Angeles Rams both win, the Rams would travel to Detroit in the Wild Card Round for a Matthew Stafford rematch with his former team. If the Packers win this weekend as well, Dallas would host Green Bay for a Mike McCarthy coaching rematch with his former team (Green Bay).

Vikings have worst chance to make the playoffs

With about a 1% chance to make the postseason, Minnesota's playoff hopes hinge on one of two outcomes: A Vikings win combined with losses by the Packers, Bucs, and Seattle Seahawks OR a Vikings win combined with losses by the Packers, Seahawks, and New Orleans Saints.

The Packers are a three-point home favorite over Chicago, the Seahawks are a three-point road favorite at Arizona, and the Buccaneers are a 4.5-point road favorite at Carolina, while the Saints are favored by three at home against Atlanta.

One team that can actually lose on Sunday and still reach the postseason is Pittsburgh. Currently ninth in the AFC, the Steelers would make the playoffs with a loss to Baltimore if the Jaguars lose, the Denver Broncos beat the Las Vegas Raiders, and the Colts-Texans game does not end in a tie. Should the unlikely happen, the seventh seed would come down to a four-way tie between the Steelers, Broncos, Jaguars, and the loser of the . Pittsburgh would win the tiebreaker based on strength of victories.

Notable starters resting in Week 18

Week 18 of the NFL season is made all the more interesting from a playoff standpoint and sports betting stance (and/or fantasy football stance, if your season is still going) because of the number of starters resting on teams with less at stake.

For starters (no pun intended), the Kansas City Chiefs will sit Patrick Mahomes on Sunday since the Chiefs are locked into the No. 3 seed. Blaine Gabbert will start in Mahomes' place against the Los Angeles Chargers (3.5-point home favorite).

The Rams, who have clinched a wild-card spot, will also rest Matthew Stafford and play backup Carson Wentz against the 49ers, who will start Sam Darnold in place of Brock Purdy. Rams head coach Sean McVay also ruled out running back Kyren Williams, receiver Cooper Kupp, and defensive tackle Aaron Donald.

With Lamar Jackson sitting out Saturday's rivalry matchup with Pittsburgh, Tyler Huntley will get the start for Baltimore. Huntley is 1-2 versus Pittsburgh for his career.

Receiver Odell Beckham Jr. will also sit Saturday in spite of contract bonuses on the line for the veteran. He would have received a $250,000 bonus with at least five receptions in the game, $250,000 with two touchdowns, and $750,000 with 185 receiving yards.

One player who will likely see action is Nelson Agholor, who could earn $250,000 with 58 receiving yards and another $250,000 with 10 catches.

Among the players who are questionable for Week 18 due to injuries are Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert, Dolphins receiver Jaylen Waddle, and Dolphins cornerback Xavien Howard, as well as Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who is day-to-day with a shoulder injury.

Bills quarterback Josh Allen is expected to play Sunday's contest at Miami despite neck and finger injuries.

Bears a lock for 2024 No. 1 draft pick, Patriots could get No. 2

Heading into Week 18, the top of the 2024 NFL Draft order is already set, with the Bears owning the No. 1 overall pick via the Carolina Panthers, who are guaranteed to finish with the league's worst record (currently 2-14). The 4-12 Washington Commanders currently hold the No. 2 overall pick, but that selection could fall to the 4-12 New England Patriots or the 4-12 Arizona Cardinals.

If the Patriots lose to the New York Jets on Sunday and the Commanders and Cardinals win, the six-time Super Bowl-winning franchise would secure the No. 2 spot in the draft.

That's unlikely to happen, though, with the Patriots slightly favored at home (-2.5), while the Commanders are a 13-point home underdog to Dallas and the Cardinals are a three-point home dog to Seattle.

Heading into Week 18, the New York Giants, Los Angeles Chargers, Titans, Jets, Falcons, and Bears hold draft picks 5-10, respectively, but that order could change based on the results of the final week of the season.

2024 playoff schedule

To wrap up our Week 18 rundown, here's a quick look at the 2024 postseason schedule, which will kick off Saturday, Jan. 13.

Wild Card Round

Saturday, Jan. 13, 2024

4:30 p.m. (NBC, Peacock)
8:15 p.m. (Peacock)

Sunday, Jan. 14, 2024

1 p.m. (FOX or CBS)
4:30 p.m. (FOX or CBS)
8:15 p.m. (NBC, Peacock)

Monday, Jan. 15, 2024

8:15 p.m. (ABC, ESPN, ESPN2)

Divisional Round

Saturday, Jan. 20, 2024

AFC matchup (TBD)
NFC matchup (TBD)

Sunday, Jan. 21, 2024

AFC matchup (TBD)
NFC matchup (TBD)

Conference Championship Round

Sunday, Jan. 28, 2024

AFC Championship Game, 3 p.m. (CBS)
NFC Championship Game, 6:30 p.m. (FOX)

Super Bowl LVIII

Sunday, Feb. 11, 2024, 6:30 p.m. (CBS)

Location: Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada