Rams vs. Bengals: The best Ja'Marr Chase receiving prop bets for Super Bowl LVI
Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase (1) reacts after getting a first down. (Photo by Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire)
February 8th, 2022
Ja'Marr Chase will likely be named the AP Offensive Rookie of the Year this Thursday, and has already set postseason records for a first-year player. Will he continue to put up big numbers in the Super Bowl?
We've examined the odds and have come up with the three best Ja’Marr Chase receiving prop bets for Super Bowl LVI.
Over/Under 79.5 Receiving Yards
This seems like a low number given the incredible play of Chase this season. In the regular season, he averaged 85.6 yards per game. In the postseason, he is averaging 93.0 yards per game. If you take out the Week 18 game where he only played 9% of the offensive snaps due to the Bengals resting starters, Chase is averaging 134.0 yards per game since Week 16.
Chase also performs his best in the big games. We already mentioned his incredible playoff numbers in his first season, but this trait goes back to his college days at LSU with Joe Burrow. In the 2018 season, Chase had 93 yards in the Fiesta Bowl against UCF. In the next season, he went off for 221 yards in the National Championship Game against Clemson.
All 20 of Joe Burrow & Ja’Marr Chase’s TD connections from their 2019 season at LSU@JoeyB @Real10jayy__ pic.twitter.com/SqUKn4v4Mm
— SEC Football Vids (@SECFootballVids) January 31, 2022
The Los Angeles Rams have a solid pass defense, but they are susceptible to giving up yards. They rank 22nd in the NFL in passing yards allowed. Deebo Samuel had 72 yards receiving in the NFC Championship Game for the San Francisco 49ers, and Mike Evans had 119 yards in the Divisional Round for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Give me the Over here.
Pick: Over 79.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
Over/Under 5.5 Receptions
Chase is known for his big-play ability, so this number could remain low despite hitting the Over on his yardage total. This is proven by the fact that he only averaged 4.8 receptions per game in the regular season. However, in the postseason Chase is averaging 6.7 receptions per game.
The Rams allowed 21.7 completions per game in the postseason and 24.5 completions per game in the regular season. If you take the average and assume the Bengals have 23 pass completions, then Chase will need six of those 23 to hit the Over. That is a 26.0% receptions share. In the regular season, Chase had a 33.3% receptions share and 26.7% in the playoffs.
Pick: Over 5.5 Receptions (-134)
WR Receptions Leaders vs. LA Rams
| Week | WR | Receptions |
|---|
Conference Championship | Deebo Samuel | 4 |
Divisional Round | Mike Evans | 8 |
Wild Card | Christian Kirk | 6 |
Week 18 | Brandon Aiyuk | 6 |
Week 17 | Rashod Bateman | 7 |
Week 16 | Justin Jefferson | 8 |
Week 15 | D.K. Metcalf | 6 |
Week 14 | A.J. Green | 7 |
Week 13 | Laquon Treadwell | 4 |
Week 12 | Davante Adams | 8 |
Week 10 | Deebo Samuel | 5 |
Week 9 | A.J. Brown | 5 |
Week 8 | Brandin Cooks | 6 |
Week 7 | Kalif Raymond | 6 |
Week 6 | Sterling Shepard | 10 |
Week 5 | D.K. Metcalf | 5 |
Week 4 | A.J. Green | 5 |
Week 3 | Mike Evans | 8 |
Week 2 | Michael Pittman Jr. | 8 |
Week 1 | Allen Robinson | 6 |
Longest Reception Over/Under 26.5 Yards
This season, the Rams ranked 10th in the NFL in only allowing 8% of opponent pass attempts to hit a receiver for 20 or more yards.
The strength of the Rams' secondary is in passes to the deep right part of the field. They only allow a 30% pass success rate on passes past 15 yards on the right side of the field. This is where Chase likes to run most of his deep routes. He received 33 of his 45 targets of at least 15 yards downfield on the right side of the field.
Just send Ja'Marr Chase deep. #RuleTheJungle
— NFL (@NFL) October 17, 2021
📺: #CINvsDET on FOX
📱: NFL app pic.twitter.com/jhqSVHouqb
In the postseason, Chase’s yards per catch have changed dramatically down to 14.0 from 18.0 in the regular season. The focus is more on just getting him the ball in space to let him break a big one. While this may be a bit of a risk in betting against Chase breaking one off a short slant or screen, I like the fact that he will likely need to do that to hit this Over.
Pick: Longest Reception Under 26.5 Yards (-106)
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