Saints big favorites in Monday-night clash with Colts

This week’s Monday Night Football matchup features two teams battling for their playoff futures.

The Indianapolis Colts are in major trouble, positioned 10th in the AFC. They’ll have to win their final three games and get some help to make it to the postseason.

The Saints have clinched NFC South and a playoff spot. They still have a shot at a first-round bye but will need to catch either the 49ers or Packers to get there.

Indianapolis Colts at New Orleans Saints (-10), 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN

The Colts are falling apart at the seams

The Colts are a banged-up outfit. Their receiving corps has been wrecked by injuries (Daurice Fountain, Eric Ebron, Chester Rogers and Parris Campbell are out, and T.Y. Hilton is questionable). I feel pretty good about quarterback Jacoby Brissett’s ability to take what’s there and not blow a game, but he is really running out of places to throw the ball.

Fortunately he has one of the better offensive lines in the league. Quenton Nelson is arguably the best guard in football, and left tackle Anthony Castonzo is as consistent as they come (graded out 76.9-84.2 on Pro Football Focus in each of the last eight years). It even looks like they nailed their right tack spot, as Braden Smith is averaging a 75.8 in his second year in the league.

The Colts will definitely lean on the run game as much as possible. Running back Marlon Mack has also been afflicted with injuries this season, but I expect him to have a nice outing here. Working in his favor is that both defensive end Marcus Davenport and defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins will be out this week for the Saints. The Saints are pretty loaded on the defensive line, but losing Rankins will hurt against the run. The Colts are going to have to win in the run game, because I can envision them getting blanketed by this secondary.

New Orleans has been on fire offensively

New Orleans scored 46 points against the 49ers last week, and there is reason to believe the Saints could keep the good times rolling on offense. Drew Brees is having his third-highest-rated season of his career, according to PFF, and we all know what Teddy Bridgewater brings to the table as an extremely capable backup. Wide receiver Michael Thomas needs 23 catches in his final three games to break Marvin Harrison’s NFL record for receptions in a season, and the emergence of tight end Jared Cook has been a big part of this offense’s breakthrough.

The Saints’ offensive line has been every bit as good as the Colts’ unit, and it can make a compelling case for best OL in the league. Throw in playmakers Alvin Kamara, Latavius Murray and Taysom Hill, and you’ve got a recipe for a great offense. The Colts have two absolute studs on defense, in defensive end Justin Houston (sack artist, tackle-for-loss monster) and linebacker Darius Leonard (92 tackles in just 10 games after a 163-tackle rookie season), but it appears the Saints have too much firepower for Indianapolis to do much about it.

Indy knows how to grind

It is risky laying 10 points against a gritty Colts team. There is a scenario where Indy goes up 7-0 and proceeds to grind the game into dust. I think the primary deterrent to that happening is the Saints’ secondary. I cannot see the Colts pass catchers winning many one-on-one matchups. That will allow safeties to help out defending the run. And the Saints’ offense is catching fire at the right time. I definitely see them putting 30 points or more on the board, and the onus will be on the Colts to keep up.

NFL free pick: Saints -10

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