Scully's Super Bowl LVI prop bets: Bet on interceptions and Mixon
Cincinnati Bengals running back Joe Mixon (28). (Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire)
February 9th, 2022
Joe Burrow and kicker Evan McPherson command most of the headlines, but defense has been the unsung hero in Cincinnati’s improbable Super Bowl LVI run.
The Bengals have forced interceptions in the postseason, taking the ball away in key situations of all three playoff games.
Cincinnati held on to beat Las Vegas when intercepting Derek Carr outside the end zone in the final seconds of the Wild Card Round. The Bengals kept Tennessee in check by recording three interceptions in a low-scoring Divisional Round, and a pair of second-half interceptions were vital to the AFC championship comeback, squashing the Super Bowl hopes of heavily favored Kansas City.
The Bengals run cover 1 robber with a spy on Mahomes for the game winning interception. Jessie Bates plays post safety perfectly to get over the top and break this ball up while Vonn Bell makes the throw tough on Mahomes. Great hands from Bell. pic.twitter.com/RcMLzLd6jO
— mike (@bengals_sans) February 1, 2022
Cincinnati doesn’t win the AFC title without forcing interceptions, and LA’s Matt Stafford has thrown nine picks in his last seven games.
On offense, Cincinnati must go up against a formidable Rams defense that ranks first in pass rush win rate (53%).
Burrow, who has been sacked 63 times this year (12 in the postseason), will be under pressure behind a shaky offensive line, and he’s been prone to interceptions himself, throwing a pick against Tennessee and Kansas City.
The Rams have intercepted four passes in three playoff games, and Jalen Ramsey and his counterparts in the secondary will look to feast on Sunday.
Defense may wind up being a major storyline of the Super Bowl, and interceptions are expected from the opportunistic defenses of Cincinnati and LA.
The 1.5 Over for total interceptions (+100) is my best prop wager, and here are a couple more plays.
Joe Mixon: Player to have most rushing yards
Under the “Player Rushing” tab is a prop between Joe Mixon and Cam Akers for the most rushing yards.
Akers had a pair of lost fumbles against Tampa Bay in the Divisional Round, and he briefly exited the NFC Championship Game due to a banged-up shoulder. Akers also must split carries with Sony Michel in the Super Bowl.
Cam Akers hurt his shoulder last night. Limited to 30 snaps, 15 routes, 14 touches.
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) January 31, 2022
Sony Michel 44 snaps, 29 routes, 11 touches.
Unlike Akers, Mixon will play a key role in Cincinnati’s game plan, and he will get carries to slow down the Rams' pass rush. That makes Mixon an attractive prop play in this matchup.
Pick: Mixon to have most rushing yards (-106)
Joe Mixon: Total receiving yards by player Over 24.5
Trailing 21-3 in the AFC Championship Game, Cincinnati jump-started its offense with a screen pass that Samaje Perine took 41 yards for a touchdown. Mixon also caught three passes for 27 yards against the Chiefs, and the screen pass will be a big part of Cincinnati’s offense due to LA’s pass rush.
Look for Mixon to exceed his receiving total from the AFC Championship Game, easily covering the prop bet.
Pick: Mixon Over 24.5 receiving yards (-115)
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