Tails never fails! Everything you need to know about the coin toss prop bet for Super Bowl LVI

The most important coin toss of the year takes place at SoFi Stadium this weekend. While millions of people across the world tune in to see the Los Angeles Rams take on the Cincinnati Bengals in Super Bowl LVI, plenty of them will be glued to the coin toss, which has quickly become one of the most hotly anticipated props of the Super Bowl.

The coin toss has no favorite, there is no underdog in this market. It’s a pure 50-50 shot. But that doesn’t mean we should ignore 55 years of statistics and trends that can point us in the right direction when placing a bet.

Tails has the edge

Overall tails just has the edge, with a 28-27 record in the Super Bowl, giving that side of the coin a win percentage of 50.9%. But the coin toss does strangely seem to go in streaks.

Between Super Bowl XXXII and Super Bowl XL, the coin landed on tails in eight of the nine games, which was a remarkable run. Shortly after, between Super Bowl XLIII and Super Bowl XLVII, the flip landed on heads five times in a row — an outcome that has a probability of just 3.13%.

That run of five in a row hasn’t ever been matched, although heads has had the most recent success, winning three of the last four tosses, including last year in the clash between Kansas City and Tampa Bay.

Advantage Bengals?

The LA Rams may have home-field advantage at SoFi Stadium, but technically they are the designated away team, as the home team alternates between the AFC and NFC each year. That means the Rams have the call, and 54.5% of the time, the team that has the call loses the toss.

However, NFC teams seem to have lady luck on their side in the coin toss, as they have won the toss 67.3% of the time. When the NFC team has had the call, they’ve won the toss 64% of the time.

But could that actually be a curse rather than a blessing?

The last seven teams to have correctly called the toss have gone on to lose the Super Bowl, so history would suggest the Rams will win the toss but lose the game.

Seattle was the last team to win the coin toss and go on to win the game, while in the last 25 years, 72% of the teams that won the coin toss went on to lose the Super Bowl.

Calling the toss: added pressure or an honor?

The Rams have a 4-0 record in Super Bowl coin tosses but amazingly have never had the honor of calling the toss until now. Worryingly for the Rams, they have a 1-3 record in terms of winning the Super Bowl after winning the toss.

The Bengals, on the other hand, have called the toss in both their previous Super Bowls and have an 0-2 record in predicting the toss and an 0-2 record in winning rings!

This weekend, for the first time in their history, the Rams will go into a Super Bowl and call the toss, while for the first time in their history, the Bengals will go into a Super Bowl and not call it.

The team that has called the toss has won the Super Bowl 25 times and lost 30, so not having the pressure of calling the toss suits the Bengals.

Recommended coin toss prop bets

Coin toss outcome: tails (-103)
Correct call toss called: Yes (-106)
Team to win the coin toss: LA Rams (-106)
Coin toss to be tails and Bengals to win the game (+400)