Under Plays for 2024 NFL regular season

When it comes to betting NFL win totals, the public favors Overs. The 2024 NFL win totals at DraftKings show the contrast, as the Over win total is favored for 23 teams.  

The Under is favored for only seven teams, with Jacksonville listed as a pick ‘em (-110 money line for both sides). Bettors will have to lay serious juice to play Overs for the Chicago Bears (-165), Los Angeles Chargers (-155), Los Angeles Rams (-155), and Minnesota (-155). 

My money line threshold for any favorite is -150, and I will recommend four Under plays for the 2024 regular season.

Under plays for the 2024 NFL season

Buffalo Bills Under 10.5 wins (+120) – Buffalo had to address salary-cap issues during the offseason, allowing a bevy of talent to leave. While they still have Josh Allen, the Bills took an enormous hit at wideout, losing Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. They added rookie Keon Coleman and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, but Buffalo’s offense lacks firepower. 

Pass rush is another major concern, as they allowed elite pass rusher Leonard Floyd to depart and must rely upon on an unproven cast and an injury-prone Von Miller. 

The Bills don’t have the pieces to make a serious run this season, and it’s easy to envision them finishing third in the AFC East behind Miami and New York.

Los Angeles Chargers Under 8.5 wins (+130) – Los Angeles won’t be the same high-scoring team after parting ways with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. The Charges are undergoing a radical shift in philosophy, shifting to a run-based attack with no proven commodities at running back. 

The Chargers won five games last year and new coach Jim Harbaugh should provide a boost, but a four-game improvement is unrealistic given their lack of depth and/or quality at too many key positions. 

Los Angeles is on the right path to long-term success, building up talent on the offensive and defensive lines, but there will be too many growing pains for the Chargers to finish above .500 in a loaded AFC.

Los Angeles Rams Under 8.5 wins (+125) – With a 6.5 projected win total in 2023, Los Angeles outperformed expectations finishing 10-7. They also benefited from one of the league’s weakest schedules, and theirs this season is ranked as the 15th-toughest based on their opponents' projected win totals. 

Look for them to get off to a slow start, with their first five games consisting of a trio of Super Bowl hopefuls (Detroit, Green Bay, and San Francisco) and tricky road games at Arizona and Chicago.

Plus, the Rams must deal with the retirement of arguably the greatest interior defensive lineman ever, Aaron Donald. His absence will be felt, and the Rams don’t have the depth to make a serious playoff push this season. They look like a third-place finisher in the NFC West.

Pittsburgh Under 8.5 wins (-145) – Pittsburgh eked out another winning record in 2023, but don’t be fooled. Their pedestrian offense was not good, and no team took advantage of more fortuitous circumstances. The Steelers lost to Arizona and New England at home, but they compiled a 5-1 record in the AFC North because Cincinnati and Cleveland lost their starting quarterbacks and Baltimore played backups in the regular-season finale. 

This year will be payback: I expect at least a three-game swing in the divisional standings as the Steelers' offensive struggles finally catch up to them. They lack a viable ground game behind one of the worst offensive lines in the AFC, and cast-off quarterbacks are battling for the starting job. 

Their schedule is the deciding factor, as Pittsburgh plays the league’s most difficult one based upon 2024 projected win totals and the third-hardest schedule based on opponents’ win percentage. It all adds up to a losing campaign.