Vikings vs. Bears: NFL Week 15 MNF betting odds, preview, and pick

A chilly December evening is a great occasion for a Monday night matchup between two NFC North rivals, and that’s exactly what we’ll get to cap off the Week 15 schedule, when the Minnesota Vikings travel to Chicago to take on the Bears.

With a thankful nod to the schedule-makers, let’s take a closer look at this game and see if we can’t close out Week 15 with a winning ticket.

The Vikings are 6-7 straight up on the season and 7-6 against the spread. They sit in eighth place in the NFC playoff standings after their impressive win against the Steelers in Week 14.

The Bears are just 4-9 straight up on the year and also 4-9 against the spread. They are coming off a disappointing loss to their other division rival, the Green Bay Packers, after squandering a 10-point lead late in the first half to fall 45-30.

The Vikings are 3.5-point favorites, with the total set at 44 points.

Vikings boast the more potent offense

It doesn’t feel like the Vikings have been a dominant team in any sense this season, yet they have done a remarkable job of jumping out to leads. In fact, they have led in every game, and it is well-documented that over half of their games have come down to the final play.

The offense is sixth in the league in yards per play and has actually been slightly better on the road.

Quarterback Kirk Cousins decides their success, but a healthy Dalvin Cook is the wild card who — as evidenced in Week 14 against the Steelers — can break the game wide open with his explosiveness.

Cook enjoyed massive holes against a poor Steelers rush defense, but he also demonstrated why when he’s at his best, he can be one of the most dangerous rushers in the league. He is one of very few rushers who contributes a positive EPA over the course of an entire season. His talent forces linebackers and safeties to respect him and potentially leave talented receivers Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen open deep over the middle.

Thielen took last week off to rehabilitate an ankle injury, and while he will likely be questionable for this game, his presence would go a long way in the Vikings producing offensively at the rate they have during their best moments in 2021.

The Bears, in contrast, are just 29th in the league in yards per play offensively.

Vikings and Bears betting trends

• Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog
• Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games
• The Vikings are 4-2 ATS in their last six games
• The Under is 13-6 in the last 19 meetings between these teams
• The Under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Chicago between these teams

Bears' scoring output is Fool's Gold

The Bears managed to score 30 points against the Packers in their last outing, but that output is inflated relative to their actual offensive production. A punt return touchdown, two big touchdown passes that were only thrown a few yards within the line of scrimmage, and a big run on one well-designed sweep play produced 27 points.

The Bears offense is bad and will not be able to keep up with the Vikings offense, which should get the lead and outpace the Bears to the finish line.

Score prediction: Vikings 27, Bears 17

NFL Week 15 pick: Vikings -3.5