YouBet Super Bowl LIX picks: Chiefs bring winning attitude, Barkley the key factor for Eagles

Super Bowl LIX kicks off Sunday at 6:30 P.M. ET, and the Kansas City Chiefs will seek a historic three-peat after becoming the first team to reach the Super Bowl following back-to-back wins. The six previous teams to win consecutive Super Bowls -- Dallas, Green Bay, Miami, New England, Pittsburgh (twice), and San Francisco -- all failed to reach the big game the next season.

Andy Reid, Travis Kelce, and a formidable defense are key factors to the Chiefs' success, but three-time Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes is the straw who stirs the drink, a generational talent who has reached the AFC Championship game every year since becoming the starter in 2018. Mahomes will make his fifth Super Bowl trip, compiling a 3-1 record, and Tom Brady and Joe Burrow are the only quarterbacks to defeat him in the postseason.

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It's a daunting task for Jalen Hurts, but the Philadelphia Eagles have their own generational talent in Saquon Barkley, who led the league in rushing after signing as a free agent. Barkley wasn’t around when the Eagles squandered a 24-14 halftime lead in Super Bowl LVI two years ago, the game’s lone turnover resulting in a 36-yard Chiefs fumble return for a touchdown, and his locker room presence made a big difference for an Eagles squad that lost six of their final seven games last year.

Something has to give in the Super Bowl. Barkley has compiled 2,447 rushing yards this year, including 442 yards in the postseason, and he is 30 yards short of breaking Terrell Davis’ record for combined rushing yards in the regular and postseason. The Eagles running back needs 169 rushing yards to establish a new postseason rushing record, and he enters the Super Bowl having rushed for at least 100 yards in five consecutive games and nine of the last 10.

The Chiefs haven’t surrendered a 100-yard rusher all season, and Barkley’s rushing output will be instrumental to the Eagles’ chances.

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Kansas City won nine games when Mahomes didn’t throw for 250 yards; they rely on a short passing game that leads to lengthy, time-consuming drives. Philadelphia is also a ball-control team, seldom flashy but difficult to stop. After Hurts got banged up late in the season, the Eagles won ugly down the stretch, but it’s easy to appreciate how their offense came together during the postseason, scoring 55 points and throttling a hot Commanders offense during the NFC Championship game.

This has been a special season for Mahomes, who lacks explosive weapons at the receiver position but found a way to lead the Chiefs to victory in every close game, but he will have his work cut out against the league’s leading total defense and scoring defense. The Eagles also rank second in pass defense, and they forced 10 takeaways, with no giveaways, in three postseason games.

The Chiefs' magic will run out in a relatively low-scoring Super Bowl.

Super Bowl LIX Picks

Eagles Moneyline (+100)
Under 48.5 points (-105)

All lines courtesy BetMGM

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